You might be forgiven for thinking that winter 2011-12 across Europe and the US was destined to be freezing cold with snow up to our eyeballs! At least that is if you believe the popular press or eavesdrop on some of the more fearful predictions out there in cyberspace.
Well, it’s perhaps just as well that we start from that premise because that will mean that we are all slightly more prepared than would otherwise be the case. You see, preparation is at least half the battle because to be forewarned is to be forearmed and to be forearmed means individuals, companies, institutions and governments may get off their collective bottoms and do something before a big winter event hits us again.
Take yourself back to the end of October and the unscripted snowfalls that hit NE USA. More than a dozen deaths, transport crippled and commercial activities seriously affected.
Now I would not suggest that was an easy one to forecast, but those who caught the warnings and acted upon them before the white stuff struck, saved themselves a lot of grief by doing something; but sadly most didn’t. Further back still and the serious and prolonged winter weather for Europe, the US and Japan last year also caught many by surprise and cost several billion in whatever denomination.
So even before we entertain the risk of severe winter weather this time around, what should we be doing in order to best equip ourselves from a business perspective? Here’s our seven-point guide:
1. Appoint an in-house severe weather coordinator. The job of this person is to ensure all posts are covered, that staff are informed and that adequate contingencies are in place for both safety and commercial advantage.
2. Keep updated about winter prospects. Subscribe to a reputable weather service that keeps you updated on the longer term prospects.
3. Subscribe to a reliable form of short to medium weather alert. Preferably despatched direct to key personnel. Occasionally you may get a crying wolf, but better that than to rely upon the media to shout out just as it happens!
4. Arrange in advance car sharing for staff with those that have 4×4 vehicles. At that very least, ensure staff carry in their vehicles shovels, sleeping bags, food and drink, a mobile phone, first aid, warm clothes, torch and a whistle.
5. Be prepared to be flexible in working practices. Equip staff to work from home. If possible, diversify your product/service; catch the moment as the weather turns – especially if you run a business that prospers in wintry weather.
6. Have a store of useful items that always run out when the masses discover winter has landed, such as grit/salt, shovels, fuel for vehicles and heating, candles, torches, battery operated radios, emergency food & water and additional bedding.
7. Insure. If you fear the worst it is possible to insure the worst. But hurry, underwriters won’t cover you as the first flakes fall!
All that having been said, what does winter 2011/12 hold for us? Well, the South American phenomena La Niña remains active (as it was last year) so that may not bode well. On the other hand, at the time of writing there was no sign of obvious atmospheric blocking patterns forcing an early start to winter, and other factors suggest mild for most – at least for a time. The truth is we have some very good but commercially sensitive ideas of how the winter is going to unfold on both sides of the Atlantic, but for now it’s head or tails and plan for the worse!
Jim N R Dale is a Senior Risk Meteorologist for British Weather Services
